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Global warming: climate skepticism

18 January 2013 | In Curiosidades | 407 views | By

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In the 90, was unexceptional appear some scientist, whatever this generic title, denying global warming. Instead of using discernment that could prove methodologies such thesis, simply stated the non-existence of global warming based on scientific methods that disqualify said just the opposite. Era como negar que um automóvel pudesse se deslocar por conta de um problem de metodologia na costura do banco de couro!

Worse than being meaningless, ensejava to an understanding of scientific misconduct with the single goal of taking advantage of a moment in which many questions exist and promote themselves inappropriately and dangerous for the credibility of science. Some of these scientists, sponsored by big industries issue, were also evident interest in hide global warming, still it could be, and cannot be classified as skeptics, Since the basic principle of the skepticism is the impartiality, and in these cases, passed away from it.

Time passed and more and more models of explanation of global warming presented by the IPCC began to be refined and with power to explain with more and more precisely such an effect, What could have discouraged skeptics, or deniers of global warming, and its already fragile flag. Unlike, the scientific evidence the spurred to defend the following idea: Yes, the global warming exists, but it is not a result of human activity. And on behalf of one or another error of precision of current models, as the Met Office review (British Weather Center) that projected temperature increase until 2017 of 0.54 degrees and after review set the number to 0.43, try to deconstruct serious and definitive works that prove global warming by human activity.

grafico anomalia temperatura

(Slide the anthropic model of IPCC)

The above illustration is the retroactive application of the IPCC models that determine a range of variability of global warming in two versions: the red sash that determines how should behave temperatures, considering the anthropic action (of man) and that does not consider the action of the man in blue. This model was developed to predict the increase in temperatures and applied retroactively the black line is the verified. One has to check that what best explains, and with impressive precision, is that global warming is the model that considers the human action, proving unequivocal warming so much about human contribution for this purpose.

Even if it's not climate expert, the reader may resort to common sense in the analysis of data and facts to accept the scientific thesis proven that global warming exists.

The accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere, Since the industrial revolution, went from 280 until 296 ppm (parts per million), difference of 116 pp,. us 500 thousand years prior to the industrial revolution, the buildup was 180 for 280 ppm, difference of 100 ppm. Like this, in 500 a thousand years, before the industrial action, built up 100 ppm in the atmosphere. The arithmetic is simple: a buildup of 0.0002 ppm per year on average.

In the period after the industrial revolution (initiated approximately 140 years), o acúmulo foi de 116 ppm. Like ththe buildup wasi de 0.8285 per year. This means that the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere was accelerated in 4142 vezes (the last time I wrote about that era of acceleration 3100 vezes),timeselation to the normal accumulation of CO2 by natural processes.

Well, We don't have to be experts to realize that there's a tremendous imbalance and, Although we do not have knowledge of the consequences in detail, It's not prudent to take care not to drastically reduce emissions and less, wasting time on the agenda of the contestation of the facts.

I don't want to give the feeling of being undemocratic, each one speaks and writes what he wants, but I want to see if they have the guts to tell your children and grandchildren, When everything goes wrong, they did everything they could! Not done.

By Felipe Bottinié economista e sócio-fundador da Green Domus Development Sustentável Ltda e da Neutralize Carbono @neutralizeCO2. Consultor especial do Programa of Development das Nações Unidas.

In Ivaiporã-PR, Computer engineer, Workgroup Administrator Tips in General. Passionate about technology and Informatics.



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